TRADLINX

India delayed its cabotage rollback to October 2026 as Middle East reroutings flood Indian ports with Gulf-bound cargo. Meanwhile, Salalah is unreliable after drone strikes, Hapag-Lloyd has reinstated Karachi port calls on India-USEC services, and Karachi handled more transshipment TEUs in March than in all of 2025. This post explains what shifted on Indian Ocean trades and what shippers should check now.

LTL rates are projected to hit a record 68.4% above the 2018 baseline in Q2, driven by carrier yield discipline and diesel above $5.60/gallon. This decision-support brief identifies which cost, routing, and procurement assumptions are most at risk — and provides a concrete checklist for verification before the next planning cycle.
Tags: LTL rates, yield discipline, fuel surcharge, Q2 2026, freight cost planning, diesel prices, mode selection, landed cost, supply chain cost pressure
Category: News (or whichever category the fuel/surcharge series lives in)
Slug: ltl-rates-q2-highs-planning-assumptions-at-risk

Things to confirm before publishing:

“Three Carriers” post URL. I couldn’t find this post on the blog via search — may be too recently published (Apr 14) to be indexed. I used a placeholder slug (/three-carriers-activate-new-surcharges-april-18-heres-the-updated-rate-table/). Replace with the actual permalink.
Diesel figure. I updated from $5.37 (the late-March figure in the prior post) to $5.61 (EIA week of April 13). The content pack’s reference to $5.37 is accurate as a cite to the earlier post, but the current number has moved. The draft uses both: $5.37 as established context, $5.61 as the latest.
Word count. The draft runs ~1,100 words, which is about 50% over the outline’s ~750 target. The extra weight is mainly in Section 3 (assumption categories) where I added the Maersk trigger-mechanism detail and the weight-per-shipment stat. Both earn their space — the first gives the surcharge reserve section a concrete “why this matters” anchor, the second makes the mode-selection argument falsifiable. If you want to cut to the outlined ~750, the first candidates would be the “compounding effect” paragraph at the end of Section 2 and the PMI paragraph in Section 5.
STB reference. The content pack suggested mentioning STB ex parte proceedings as a forward signal for intermodal pricing. I found STB activity (Chairman Fuchs updating outstanding proceedings, UP-NS merger application, reciprocal switching repeal proposal) but nothing with a direct line to near-term intermodal pricing. I omitted rather than manufacture a connection that would undermine the post’s credibility as decision support. If you have a specific STB docket in mind from the pipeline signals, I can add it back with a one-sentence “watch this” reference.
Ltl rates q2 planning assumptions at riskCode · HTML Open in ArcMostly solid. Two claims need correction, and several others should be tightened so they do not overstate what the sources prove.

Bottom line

The post’s core thesis is supported: Q2 2026 LTL pricing is at a record high, carrier yield discipline is still the structural driver, diesel remains sharplpastedgot this feedback from differnt ai session. lets do some more fact checking8:56 AMExcavated multiple claims against primary sources for verificationExcavated multiple claims against primary sources for verificationGood feedback — let me verify each flagged claim against primary sources. Starting with the diesel figures.Reconciled cached data with recent forecasts for verificationReconciled cached data with recent forecasts for verificationThe EIA historical page is showing cached data through early March. Let me check the earlier EIA forecasts to verify the $3.47 claim.Scrutinized diesel forecasts and industrial freight claims for accuracyScrutinized diesel forecasts and industrial freight claims for accuracyNow I have the full picture. Here’s what the additional fact-checking confirms:
1. The $5.37 figure — The fact-checker is right to flag this. The existing Tradlinx blog (Apr 10) used $5.37 as a “late March” number, but EIA’s weekly series shows $5.401 for the week of March 30. The $5.37 may have been a daily snapshot, a different regional average, or rounded from a non-EIA source. Since it’s in a published Tradlinx post, we can reference it as “the $5.37 cited in our April 10 analysis,” but for the new post’s own claims we should use EIA weekly data. Fix: use the EIA weekly sequence.
2. The $3.47 forecast — The fact-checker is correct. EIA’s November 2025 STEO projected diesel at $3.50/gal for 2026 U.S. Energy Information Administration. The January 2026 STEO showed quarterly figures of $3.50, $3.40, $3.41, $3.41 — an annual average around $3.43 RIGZONE. The August 2025 STEO said “on-highway diesel to average less than $3.50 per gallon in 2026.” U.S. Energy Information Administration The $3.47 in the existing Tradlinx blog likely came from a quarterly figure (Q3 from the November STEO), not the annual average. Fix: use “sub-$3.50” as the pre-war annual forecast range.
3. “Two-thirds of LTL revenue” — This one is more nuanced than the fact-checker suggests. The FreightWaves article, reporting on the TD Cowen/AFS index, says “the industrial complex, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of LTL revenue.” FreightWaves So the phrasing does appear in the trade-press source. That said, FreightWaves is paraphrasing the index data, and the fact-checker is right that it’s a secondary characterization. Fix: soften to “roughly two-thirds of LTL freight mix” — costs nothing and removes the attribution risk.
4. “Q4 2025 soft patch” — Multiple sources describe 2025 LTL demand as “tepid” and soft, but pinning it specifically to Q4 adds precision beyond what the sources prove. Fix: “before the latest Q2 hardening” per fact-checker’s suggestion.
5. Transit time / selectivity — The fact-checker is right that AFS data supports costs and pricing discipline but doesn’t directly prove worsened transit on specific lanes. Fix: reframe as elevated risk rather than established fact.
Now applying all five corrections:Prepared to systematically apply multiple correctionsPrepared to systematically apply multiple correctionsNow applying the five corrections:Verified and corrected temporal data source accuracyVerified and corrected temporal data source accuracyOne more correction I caught — the yield discipline timeframe. The FreightWaves/TD Cowen source says the 40% floor has held since Q2 2022, not “mid-2023”:Prepared to synthesize and verify information thoroughlyPrepared to synthesize and verify information thoroughlyHere’s the correction summary with source-level detail for your records:
6 edits applied:
#What changedBeforeAfterSource1Diesel figure in opening”$5.37 that already rewrote assumptions”EIA weekly sequence: $5.40 (Mar 30), $5.64 (Apr 6), $5.61 (Apr 13)EIA weekly diesel release, Apr 14; Truck News confirming $5.6082EIA forecast baseline”$3.47 that EIA had originally forecast””sub-$3.50 range that EIA had projected before the Hormuz shock… current April forecast of $4.80″Nov 2025 STEO ($3.50 annual avg); Jan 2026 STEO (~$3.43 from quarterly figures); Aug 2025 STEO (“less than $3.50”); Apr 2026 STEO ($4.80)3Industrial freight share”nearly two-thirds of LTL revenue””roughly two-thirds of the typical LTL freight mix”FreightWaves does use “revenue” but is paraphrasing TD Cowen data; “freight mix” is defensible without needing the chain of attribution4Contract timing”Q4 2025 soft patch””before the latest Q2 hardening”Multiple sources confirm soft 2025 LTL demand broadly but don’t isolate Q4 specifically5Transit time claim”have made expedite decisions more expensive. Transit time assumptions set in Q1 may no longer hold on lanes where carriers are being selective””raise the cost of expediting and increase the risk that Q1 transit assumptions no longer hold on some lanes”AFS data proves pricing discipline and cost increases; transit reliability is inferred, not directly evidenced6Yield discipline floor date”since mid-2023″”since Q2 2022″CCJ/TD Cowen: “Since Q2 2022, LTL cost per shipment has remained more than 40% above January 2018 levels”
The fact-checker’s feedback was largely right. The $3.47 and $5.37 corrections were the real risks — both were numbers that were plausible but didn’t match EIA’s official weekly/annual series cleanly enough to survive scrutiny. The other three were risk-reduction edits: defensible as written, but safer after the change.Ltl rates q2 planning assumptions at riskCode · HTML Open in Arc

The D.C. Circuit upheld the FMC’s rule defining when carriers unlawfully refuse to negotiate vessel space, rejecting a challenge from the World Shipping Council. The FMC can now treat extreme pricing as evidence of bad faith, require annual documented export policies, and evaluate complaints without deferring to vague “business decision” defenses. This post explains what the ruling means for shippers and carriers in a market already under surcharge and capacity pressure.

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire was supposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It hasn’t. Fewer than 10 vessels per day are transiting, no major carrier has resumed Gulf services, and war risk insurance remains unavailable at commercial rates. Here’s the carrier-by-carrier status, the three barriers that haven’t moved, and what to verify before changing any routing decisions.