{"id":23578,"date":"2026-01-29T08:47:02","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T23:47:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tradlinx.com\/blog\/?p=23578"},"modified":"2026-01-29T08:51:41","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T23:51:41","slug":"%ea%b3%b5%ea%b8%89%eb%a7%9d-%eb%8c%80%ec%b2%b4-%ed%95%ad%eb%a1%9c-%ed%98%84%ec%8b%a4%ec%a0%81-%eb%8c%80%ec%95%88%ec%9d%80-%ec%9e%88%eb%8a%94%ea%b0%80-%ec%a7%80%ec%a0%95%ed%95%99%ec%a0%81-%eb%a6%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tradlinx.com\/blog\/market-trend\/%ea%b3%b5%ea%b8%89%eb%a7%9d-%eb%8c%80%ec%b2%b4-%ed%95%ad%eb%a1%9c-%ed%98%84%ec%8b%a4%ec%a0%81-%eb%8c%80%ec%95%88%ec%9d%80-%ec%9e%88%eb%8a%94%ea%b0%80-%ec%a7%80%ec%a0%95%ed%95%99%ec%a0%81-%eb%a6%ac\/","title":{"rendered":"\uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ub300\uccb4 \ud56d\ub85c, \ud604\uc2e4\uc801 \ub300\uc548\uc740 \uc788\ub294\uac00? \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uc640 \ubb3c\ub958\uc758 \uacfc\uc81c"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\uc548\ub155\ud558\uc138\uc694. \ubb3c\ub958\uc758 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uae30\uc900, \ud2b8\ub808\ub4dc\ub9c1\uc2a4<\/strong> \uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ucd5c\uadfc \uad6d\uc81c \ubb34\uc5ed \ud658\uacbd\uc740 \uad00\uc138 \uc7a5\ubcbd\uacfc \uac01\uc885 \uc815\ucc45 \uc774\uc288\ub4e4\uc774 \uc5bd\ud788\uace0\uc124\ud0a4\uba70, \ud574\uc6b4 \uc5c5\uacc4 \uc885\uc0ac\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c ‘\uc815\uce58\ud559’\uc744 \ud544\uc218\uc801\uc778 \uace0\ub824 \uc0ac\ud56d\uc73c\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc544\uc2dc\uc544\uc5d0\uc11c \ubbf8 \uc11c\ubd80\ub85c \ud5a5\ud558\ub294 \ud0dc\ud3c9\uc591 \ud56d\ub85c\uac00 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc8fc\uc694 \ub178\uc120\uc784\uc5d0\ub294 \ubcc0\ud568\uc774 \uc5c6\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc704\uae30\uac10\uc740 \uadf8 \uc5b4\ub290 \ub54c\ubcf4\ub2e4 ‘\uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \ub300\uccb4 \ud56d\ub85c’\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub17c\uc758\ub97c \ub728\uac81\uac8c \ub2ec\uad6c\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc624\ub298 \ud2b8\ub808\ub4dc\ub9c1\uc2a4\ub294 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\uac00 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud55c \uc8fc\uc694 \ud56d\ub85c\uc758 \uc704\uae30\uc640, \uc774\ub97c \ud0c0\uac1c\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uac70\ub860\ub418\ub294 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ub300\uccb4 \ud56d\ub85c\uc758 \ud604\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \uae4a\uc774 \uc788\uac8c \ub4e4\uc5ec\ub2e4\ubcf4\uace0\uc790 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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20\ub144\uc758 \uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \uba48\ucd94\ub2e4: \ud64d\ud574 \uc0ac\ud0dc\uc640 \uc218\uc5d0\uc988 \uc6b4\ud558\uc758 \ub51c\ub808\ub9c8<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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\uc544\uc2dc\uc544\uc640 \ubbf8 \ub3d9\ubd80\ub97c \uc787\ub294 \uc218\uc5d0\uc988 \uc6b4\ud558 \ub8e8\ud2b8\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c 20\uc5ec \ub144\uac04 \ube44\uc57d\uc801\uc778 \uc131\uc7a5\uc744 \uc774\ub904\uc654\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud574\uc6b4 \ub3d9\ub9f9\ub4e4\uc740 \ucd08\ub300\ud615 \uc120\ubc15\uc744 \ud22c\uc785\ud558\uace0, \uac10\uc18d \uc6b4\ud56d(Slow Steaming) \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud6a8\uc728\uc131\uc744 \uadf9\ub300\ud654\ud574\uc654\uc8e0. \uacfc\uac70 \uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\uac00 \ub3d9\uc11c \ud56d\ub85c\uc758 \ud655\uace0\ud55c \uc911\uc2ec\ucd95(Fulcrum)\uc774\uc5c8\ub358 \uc2dc\uc808\uc5d0\ub294 \uc911\uad6d\ubc1c \uc218\uc5d0\uc988 \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uac00 \uc0dd\uc18c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uacb0\uad6d \ud604\uc2e4\uc774 \ub418\uc5b4 \ubb3c\ub958\uc758 \ub3d9\ub9e5 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud574\uc654\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 2023\ub144\ubd80\ud130 \uc608\uba58 \ud6c4\ud2f0 \ubc18\uad70\uc774 \ud64d\ud574\uc640 \uc544\ub374\ub9cc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c1\uc120\uc744 \ud45c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uad70\uc0ac \ud65c\ub3d9\uc744 \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc774 \uacac\uace0\ud588\ub358 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0 \uc81c\ub3d9\uc774 \uac78\ub838\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc218\uc5d0\uc988 \uc6b4\ud558 \ud1b5\ud56d\uc774 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \uc704\ud611\uc744 \ubc1b\uc790 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uc120\uc0ac\ub294 \uc544\ud504\ub9ac\uce74 \ub0a8\ub2e8\uc758 \ud76c\ub9dd\ubd09(Cape of Good Hope)\uc73c\ub85c \uc6b0\ud68c\ud558\ub294 \uace0\uc721\uc9c0\ucc45\uc744 \ud0dd\ud574\uc57c \ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ud56d\ud574 \uae30\uac04\uc740 \ucd5c\ub300 2\uc8fc\uac00\ub7c9 \ub298\uc5b4\ub0ac\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc720\ud734 \uc120\ubcf5(Spare capacity)\uc740 \uac70\uc758 \ubaa8\ub450 \ud761\uc218\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc218\uc5d0\uc988 \ud1b5\ud56d \uc7ac\uac1c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub17c\uc758\uac00 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc788\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ub780 \uc815\uc138 \ubd88\uc548\uc774 \uc120\uc6d0\uacfc \ud654\ubb3c\uc758 \uc548\uc804\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce60 \uc5f0\uc1c4 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c(Knock-on risks) \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc5c5\uacc4\ub294 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\ubd81\ucabd\uc758 \uc5bc\uc74c\uae38\uacfc \ud30c\ub098\ub9c8\uc758 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \uaca9\ub791<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\uc218\uc5d0\uc988\uac00 \ub9c9\ud78c \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub860\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uc7a5 \uac15\ub825\ud55c \ub300\uc548\uc73c\ub85c \ub5a0\uc624\ub978 \uac83\uc740 ‘\ubd81\uadf9\ud574 \ud56d\ub85c(Northern Sea Route)’\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \uc218\uc5d0\uc988 \ub300\ube44 \uac70\ub9ac\uac00 20~40% \uc9e7\uc544 \uc6b4\uc1a1 \uc2dc\uac04\uc744 \uc218 \uc8fc\uc77c(Weeks) \ub2e8\ucd95\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc778 \uc774\uc810\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc5ec\ub984\uacfc \uac00\uc744\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc1c4\ube59\uc120 \ud638\uc1a1\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \uacc4\uc808\uc801 \uc81c\uc57d\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \uc804 \ub300\ud1b5\ub839\uc774 \uadf8\ub9b0\ub780\ub4dc\uc5d0 \uad00\uc2ec\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uba74\uc11c \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uae34\uc7a5\uac10\uc774 \uac10\ub3c4\ub294 \uacf3\uc774\uae30\ub3c4 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc774\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub294 \ud30c\ub098\ub9c8 \uc6b4\ud558\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uac10\uc9c0\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\ub294 2025\ub144 1\uc6d4 20\uc77c \ucde8\uc784\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \ud56d\ub9cc \uc9c0\ubc30\ub825\uc744 \ubb38\uc81c \uc0bc\uc73c\uba70 “\ud30c\ub098\ub9c8 \uc6b4\ud558\ub97c \ub418\ucc3e\uaca0\ub2e4(Take back)”\uace0 \uc120\uc5b8\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc555\ubc15\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud310\ub3c4\ub97c \ud754\ub4e4\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucde8\uc784\uc0ac \ud6c4 \ub450 \ub2ec\uc774 \ucc44 \uc548 \ub418\uc5b4 CK\ud5c8\uce58\uc2a8\uc740 \uc790\uc0ac\uc758 \ud574\uc0c1 \ud130\ubbf8\ub110 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \ubbf8\uad6d \ud22c\uc790\uc790(\ube14\ub799\ub85d, \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uc778\ud504\ub77c\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ed\ucc98 \ud30c\ud2b8\ub108\uc2a4)\uc640 MSC(TIL) \ucee8\uc18c\uc2dc\uc5c4\uc5d0 \uc57d 228\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uac01\ud558\uae30\ub85c \ud569\uc758\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubbf8\uad6d, \ud30c\ub098\ub9c8, \uc911\uad6d \uac04\uc758 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \uac08\ub4f1\uc774 \uc2ec\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc774 \uac70\ub798\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac\uae4c\uc9c0\ub3c4 \ud574\uacb0\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc(Unresolved)\ub85c \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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\uc774\uc0c1\uacfc \ud604\uc2e4 \uc0ac\uc774: \ucc9c\ubb38\ud559\uc801 \ube44\uc6a9\uc758 ‘\uc6b4\ud558 \ub51c\ub808\ub9c8’<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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\uc774\ucc98\ub7fc \uae30\uc874 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud56d\ub85c\ub4e4\uc774 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \ub2aa\uc5d0 \ube60\uc9c0\uc790, ‘\uc6b4\ud558 \ub51c\ub808\ub9c8(Canal Conundrums)’\ub97c \ud574\uacb0\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ub300\uccb4 \ud504\ub85c\uc81d\ud2b8\ub4e4\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc\uae08 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc6b0\uc120, \ud0dc\uad6d\uc758 \ub044\ub77c \uc9c0\ud611\uc744 \ub6ab\uc5b4 \ud0dc\uad6d\ub9cc(\ud0dc\ud3c9\uc591)\uacfc \uc548\ub2e4\ub9cc\ud574(\uc778\ub3c4\uc591)\ub97c \uc787\ub294 ‘\ub044\ub77c \uc6b4\ud558(Kra Canal)’\uac00 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub9d0\ub77c\uce74 \ud574\ud611\uc744 \uc6b0\ud68c\ud558\uc5ec \ub3d9\uc544\uc2dc\uc544\uc640 \uc218\uc5d0\uc988 \uac04 \uac70\ub9ac\ub97c \ud68d\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc904\uc774\ub824\ub294 \uc774 \uad6c\uc0c1\uc740 \uc218\uc138\uae30 \ub3d9\uc548 \ub17c\uc758\ub9cc \ub418\uc5b4\uc654\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c, 1825\ub144\ubd80\ud130 \uace0\ub824\ub41c ‘\ub2c8\uce74\ub77c\uacfc \uc6b4\ud558’ \uc5ed\uc2dc \uc911\uad6d\uc758 \uc77c\ub300\uc77c\ub85c(Belt and Road) \uad6c\uc0c1\uacfc \ub9de\ubb3c\ub824 \uac80\ud1a0\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\ub098, \ub450 \ud504\ub85c\uc81d\ud2b8 \ubaa8\ub450 \ucc9c\ubb38\ud559\uc801\uc778 \ube44\uc6a9\uacfc \uc815\uce58\u00b7\ud658\uacbd\uc801 \uc7a5\ubcbd \ud0d3\uc5d0 \uc2e4\ud604 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \uc694\uc6d0\ud574 \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\uc6b4\ud558\ubfd0\ub9cc \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc721\ub85c\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \ubcf5\ud569\uc6b4\uc1a1(Intermodal) \ub300\uc548\ub4e4\ub3c4 \uc3df\uc544\uc838 \ub098\uc624\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uba55\uc2dc\ucf54 \ub0a8\ubd80 \ud14c\uc6b0\uc548\ud14c\ud399 \uc9c0\ud611\uc758 \ud68c\ub791, \uc628\ub450\ub77c\uc2a4\uc758 \uad6d\uac00 \uac04 \ubcf5\ud569\ucca0\ub3c4, \ub2c8\uce74\ub77c\uacfc \uc6b4\ud558 \ucca0\ub3c4 \ub4f1\uc774 \ub300\ud45c\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774\ub4e4 \uc5ed\uc2dc \uc218\uc2ed\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ub9c9\ub300\ud55c \ube44\uc6a9\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\uba70, \ub0c9\uc815\ud788 \ubcfc \ub54c \uc774\ubbf8 APM \ud130\ubbf8\ub110\uc2a4\uac00 \uc18c\uc720\ud55c \ud30c\ub098\ub9c8 \uc6b4\ud558 \ucca0\ub3c4(Panama Canal Railroad)\uc758 \uae30\ub2a5\uc744 \ubcf5\uc81c\ud558\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uadf8\uce5c\ub2e4\ub294 \ube44\ud310\uc744 \ud53c\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ubcc0\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ucd95<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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\uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc810\ucc28 \uaca9\ub3d9\ud558\ub294 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ud658\uacbd \uc18d\uc5d0 \uc0b4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc740 \ubd80\uc815\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \uc804 \uc138\uacc4 \ubb3c\ub958\ub294 \ud0dc\ud3c9\uc591, \uc218\uc5d0\uc988, \ud30c\ub098\ub9c8\ub77c\ub294 \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud56d\ub85c\ub97c \uc911\uc2ec\uc73c\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uac08 \uc218\ubc16\uc5d0 \uc5c6\ub294 \ud604\uc2e4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud68d\uae30\uc801\uc778 \ub300\uccb4 \ud56d\ub85c\ub4e4\uc774 \ub17c\uc758\ub418\uace0\ub294 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc544\uc9c1\uc740 \ud604\uc2e4\uc801\uc778 \ub300\uc548\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub3c4\uba74 \uc704\uc758 \uad6c\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ubb3c\ub958 \ub2f4\ub2f9\uc790 \uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\uaed8\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uac70\uc2dc\uc801\uc778 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud558\uc2dc\ub418, \uae30\uc874 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud56d\ub85c\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub97c \uba74\ubc00\ud788 \ubaa8\ub2c8\ud130\ub9c1\ud558\uba70 \uc720\uc5f0\ud558\uac8c \ub300\uc751\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud2b8\ub808\ub4dc\ub9c1\uc2a4\ub294 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \uad6d\uc81c \uc815\uc138 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5ec\ub7ec\ubd84\uc758 \ud654\ubb3c\uc774 \uc548\uc804\ud558\uac8c \ubaa9\uc801\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub2ff\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub3c4\ub85d, \uac00\uc7a5 \ube60\ub974\uace0 \uc815\ud655\ud55c \ubb3c\ub958 \uc815\ubcf4\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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